Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections may directly affect the world energy matrix. With a more conservative view on oil, the new US president must restrain the growth of renewable energy sources and interfere in the supply of natural gas throughout Europe, due to its relationship with Russia. That is the point of view of Arko Consultoria’s strategy director Thiago Aragão, who participated in the Annual Meeting of Young Leaderships last December 14th, which was promoted by the IBP’s Youth Committee at the Institute’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, when the geopolitical and energy sector impacts of the victory of the Republican candidate were discussed.

For Aragão, oil will drive the US foreign policy and guide Donald Trump’s relationship with countries such as Russia, China and Venezuela: “And any change to the agreements currently in effect with Russia or China changes completely the way the world has been behaving over the last 20 years”, warns the political consultant.

According to Aragão, renewable energy should lose ground in the US within the next four years: “Trump has also said that he will withdraw the US from the agreement signed at the COP-21 in Paris. Choices such as this make it clear that the renewables sector will come to a halt and, therefore, oil will play a greater role”, he analyzed.

The supply of natural gas to Europe must also undergo dramatic changes during the Republican’s term. While Barack Obama was trying to weaken Russia’s role as the main distributor of natural gas to the continent, Trump’s victory must do the opposite. Consequently, the country led by Vladimir Putin is expected to extend the gas supply from 25% to 50% to European countries within the next four years.

During the event, the consultant also spoke on the conflicts between the US and China, Iran and Venezuela. As regards Brazil, Aragão believes that there will be no dramatic changes in the diplomatic relationship between the two countries: “I do not see the US interested in changing relations with Brazil due to our country’s bureaucracy. At the same time, I do not believe there will be any priority regarding Brazil on any of the issues”, he concluded. However, he warns that Latin America tends to line up with different powers, which may affect Brazil’s relationship with its neighbors.