Studies point to redundancy of export tax and an additional R$9.6 billion in royalties in the first half of the year
Brazil’s fiscal regime distributed R$36.5 billion in royalties from January to June; the increase in Brent crude prices generated an additional R$3 billion for the Federal Government and R$6.6 billion for states and municipalities, without the need for new taxes.
The Brazilian Institute of Oil and Gas (IBP) today released two technical studies detailing the fiscal performance and crude oil export scenario in Brazil during the first half of 2026. The findings show that the sector’s fiscal framework already captures periods of high international oil prices efficiently, making the recent decision by the Executive Management Committee of the Brazilian Chamber of Foreign Trade (Gecex/Camex) to maintain the 12% Export Tax through an administrative measure both redundant and detrimental to the country’s competitiveness.
According to the study on public revenues, Brazil distributed R$36.5 billion in royalties during the first half of 2026. This amount was 35% higher than initially projected at the beginning of the year due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which pushed the average Brent crude price to US$92.56 per barrel, well above the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) initial forecast of US$57.50.
This price increase generated an extraordinary additional R$9.6 billion in public revenues. Through the existing concession and production-sharing regime, the Federal Government received an extra R$3 billion, states R$2.7 billion, and municipalities R$3.9 billion.
“Changing the administrative mechanism to maintain the tax does not solve its underlying problems or eliminate the legal uncertainty,” said Roberto Ardenghy, President of IBP. “Public revenues from the oil sector already increase naturally whenever international prices rise or production expands. Creating an additional layer of taxation on exports merely overlaps existing charges, undermines the business environment, and discourages long-term investment.”
Decline in exports
The immediate impact of the export tax on overseas shipments was highlighted in IBP’s second study. In May, the first month in which the Export Tax took effect, Brazil’s crude oil exports fell by 28.3% compared to April, dropping from 62.8 million to 45 million barrels, while export revenues declined by 23.3%.
The technical analysis indicates that this temporary drop resulted from oil companies adjusting inventories, restructuring logistics and financial planning, and adapting to the new tax environment. Although exports recovered by 46% in June, reaching 65.7 million barrels, the sharp decline in May confirms the risk of reduced competitiveness and weaker market performance for Brazilian crude compared with other producing regions worldwide.
“Brazil’s oil and gas industry accounts for 17% of the country’s industrial GDP and supports capital-intensive investments with multi-decade horizons,” Ardenghy emphasized. “Short-term fiscal measures aimed at raising revenue reduce project profitability and increase regulatory uncertainty. Over time, this loss of competitiveness means lower production, less foreign investment, and ultimately lower public revenues.”
