IBP Statement - 12% Export Tax Under Provisional Measure 1,340 Creates Tax Overlap and Threatens Investment in Brazil’s Oil Industry
The Brazilian Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels Institute (IBP) believes that the introduction of a 12% export tax on crude oil through Provisional Measure No. 1,340/2026 imposes an unnecessary burden on a sector that already allocates approximately 70% of its revenues to taxes and government take. Between 2010 and 2025 alone, the industry contributed more than BRL 1 trillion in government revenues and financial compensations, underscoring its substantial fiscal contribution. In this context, the creation of an export tax, beyond its purely revenue-raising nature, overlaps with existing fiscal mechanisms and increases perceptions of risk within Brazil’s business environment.
An IBP study demonstrates that the current government take mechanisms—Royalties, Special Participation, and Profit Oil—are more than sufficient to capture any extraordinary gains resulting from higher oil prices. With Brent crude at US$90 per barrel, these instruments are estimated to generate at least BRL 50 billion in additional government revenues, comfortably exceeding the BRL 40 billion projected by the federal government to finance diesel price mitigation measures. As such, the new export tax constitutes a purely revenue-generating fiscal measure.
Furthermore, the measure undermines legal certainty and the competitiveness of Brazilian crude oil, sending a signal of instability to investors in a capital-intensive industry characterized by long investment cycles. The sector accounts for 53% of Brazil’s trade surplus and 17.2% of the country’s industrial GDP, with projected investments totaling US$183 billion through 2031. Unanticipated changes to the regulatory and fiscal framework discourage the investment required to sustain these projects and the approximately 445,000 jobs supported annually by the industry.
Finally, IBP reiterates that public policies designed to mitigate geopolitical shocks should preserve regulatory stability in order to ensure continued investment and the necessary replacement of oil reserves. In summary, the creation of an export tax without prior consultation with the productive sector and without a clearly defined duration creates uncertainty and discourages investment. Without predictability, Brazil risks weakening its position as a strategic global energy supplier and compromising future production, potentially returning to the status of a net oil importer in the medium term.
