Experts warn that regulatory instability jeopardizes US$100 billion in investments and future energy security
Executives from Shell, S&P Global, Rystad Energy, and ANP point out that, even though Brazil has competitive, low-carbon oil, the lack of predictability hinders projects and the development of the sector
Rio de Janeiro, October 28, 2025 – On the first day of OTC Brazil 2025, experts and executives issued a stark warning: fiscal and regulatory instability could cause Brazil to lose more than $100 billion in potential investments and compromise future energy security. On Tuesday (28), the debates at ExpoRio reinforced the idea that without predictability, Brazil will be unable to revitalize its exploration activity.
Bob Fryklund, chief strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights, outlined the global scenario. He pointed out a paradox: although there is currently a "massive surplus of barrels," the long-term outlook indicates a "risk of scarcity after 2035." In this context, Fryklund identified Latin America, led by Brazil and Guyana, as "the number one region in the world in terms of adding new barrels over the next five years."
The president of Shell Brazil, Cristiano Pinto da Costa, focused on Brazil's potential to capture this demand. He bluntly stated that if oil exploration is not revitalized, there is a "serious risk of losing investments, indicating a potential of more than $100 billion." The executive pointed out that Brazil offers a "double advantage": competitive costs and low-carbon production.
However, the panel "Managing Above-Ground Risks in Offshore Oil & Gas Through the Energy Transition" addressed the challenges hindering this potential. The experts were unanimous in identifying instability as the greatest threat. "Frequent changes in concession and tax regimes hinder new projects. An exploration project needs legal, environmental, and regulatory stability. Without that, it doesn't work," warned Marcelo de Assis, a partner at MA2 Energy.
Petrobras issued warnings about the business environment and detailed its robust plan for the Equatorial Margin, reaffirming the importance of this new frontier for energy sovereignty and social inclusion. Mayara Aquino, the state-owned company's Equatorial Margin Portfolio Manager, announced investments of R$15 billion for drilling 15 exploratory wells in the region. Additionally, R$777.5 million has been earmarked for 41 social and environmental projects, primarily in Amapá.
Daniel Leppert, Rystad Energy's senior vice president and head of Latin America, said that to have a secure energy system, "we must ensure new discoveries and continue to explore responsibly."
ANP director Pietro Mendes shared this view, pointing out that "even with advances in biofuels and electrification, we cannot give up on exploration." The need for a favorable business environment was also evident in discussions about natural gas.
During a panel on business opportunities in Argentina, Martín Kaindl of the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG) emphasized the potential of Vaca Muerta. He also described Brazil as "the ideal partner" and "the most important" market for Argentina's gas, reinforcing the idea of regional energy integration.
OTC Brazil 2025 runs until October 30 and brings together leading industry experts to discuss the future of offshore energy.
About OTC 2025
OTC Brazil 2025 is being held at ExpoRio Cidade Nova from October 28 to 30 and has Petrobras as Master Sponsor; Shell and TotalEnergies as Diamond Sponsors; Equinor, ExxonMobil, Petronas, PRIO, and TechnipFMC as Platinum Sponsors; Gold sponsorship from Brava, Chevron, and Repsol Sinopec; Silver sponsorship from bp; and Bronze sponsorship from OceanPact, PERBRAS, Vallourec, and Tenaris. EcoPetrol Brasil is a sponsor of Club Offshore, BTG Pactual Advisors is the Official Bank of the event, and the Rio de Janeiro State Government's Secretariat of Energy and Maritime Economy is a Strategic Partner. United Airlines is the official airline of OTC Brasil, and S&P Global Commodity Insights is the Knowledge Partner. B&T XP is the Official Foreign Exchange Broker; Ambipar is the Official Emissions Offsetting Partner; and the Brazilian Society of Naval Engineering (Sobena) is the Guest Association. The event also has the following media partners: eixos, Petro&Química, Brasil Energia, Tn Petróleo, Upstream, Offshore, and Oil & Gas Journal. The event also has the Institutional Support of ABEEMAR, ABEMI, ABESPETRO, ABIMAQ, ABPIP, ABRACO, AHK Mercosul, Arpel, CESAR, EIC, Energy Workforce & Technology Council, Firjan SENAI SESI, IADC, IAPG, Rede Petro ES, SBGf, Syndarm and Abeam, and Visit Rio.
